Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
