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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It often acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence is handed the award. However, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or simply the greatest upset.

Yet this year's race is profoundly unique. The list of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions fading and recent underperformers ascending collectively. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this wild and fun season, he's competing with multiple other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the projected vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the runaway favorite. But the current is not a typical season!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still